追加金融緩和 日銀は政権のしもべか

--The Asahi Shimbun, July 30
EDITORIAL: BOJ must free itself from the shackles of state policy
（社説）追加金融緩和　日銀は政権のしもべか

The Bank of Japan has decided to open the monetary spigot further. The central bank said July 29 that it will double its annual purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETF) to 6 trillion yen ($58.8 billion).
　日本銀行が金融緩和の追加策を決めた。日銀が買い入れる上場投資信託（ＥＴＦ）の額を年間６兆円に倍増する。

The BOJ’s action came as a response to a request for further monetary expansion from the Abe administration, which will soon unveil a huge package of policy measures to stoke economic growth. The program will come in at 28 trillion yen.
　安倍政権は近く事業規模２８兆円の大型経済対策を発表する予定で、日銀に金融緩和で協力するよう求めていた。

The central bank has already taken radical steps to pump money into the economy, by setting negative interest rates and making massive purchases of government bonds. As experts have warned that expanding these measures would be ineffective and even harmful, the BOJ, apparently under pressure to play ball with the government, resorted to one of the few remaining options.
マイナス金利の拡大や国債買い入れの増額に弊害や限界が指摘されるなかで、政府に歩調を合わせるための苦肉の策と言えよう。

The thinking behind the monetary policy is to ensure that the Japanese economy will continue stable and sustained growth.
　金融政策の本来の目的は、日本経済を安定させ持続的な発展を確かなものにすることだ。

It is doubtful whether the central bank’s latest move will serve this purpose.
今回の緩和策がそれにかなっているかと言えば、疑わしい。

In the latest of its quarterly “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices” report, released on July 29, the BOJ said the economy “has continued its moderate recovery trend” and “is likely to be on a moderate expanding trend.”
　日銀は四半期に一度の「展望リポート」で日本の景気の現状を「緩やかな回復を続けている」とし、今後についても「緩やかに拡大していく」と見通した。

A clutch of economic indicators confirmed the BOJ’s assessment, indicating the economy is on a stable footing. The ratio of job offers to job seekers has risen above 1 in all the 47 prefectures for the first time since such records started being kept.
有効求人倍率が全都道府県で初めて１倍を超えるなど多くの景気指標が改善を示し、景気はそれなりに安定している。

Even though there is a degree of uncertainty in European and emerging economies, no compelling case can be made for putting together an outsized package of economic stimulus measures at this moment. The BOJ should have taken exception to the administration’s plan, but the central bank has instead provided support to the administration through the additional monetary easing.
　欧州経済や新興国経済に不透明感があるとはいえ、いま大型の経済対策を打ち出そうという政府の発想そのものがおかしい。日銀はそれに物申すべきだが、追加緩和でむしろ側面支援してしまった。

The BOJ deserves to be criticized for following the government’s lead into a questionable move.
政権の意を受けて追従したと見られても仕方あるまい。

Two of the nine members of the BOJ’s Policy Board, which makes the bank’s policy decisions, voiced opposition to the proposal to increase the purchases of ETFs, investment vehicles traded on stock exchanges.
　金融政策を決める審議委員９人のうちＥＴＦ購入増には２人が反対した。

They argued, quite reasonably, that the step would have negative effects on price formation in the market. But such dissenting voices within the central bank’s policy-making body are now more unlikely to be heard than before because the Abe administration has replaced retiring members with supporters of the prime minister's "Abenomics" economic policy. The two members opposed to the latest action are both private-sector economists who joined the Policy Board before Shinzo Abe returned to power in December 2012.
「市場の価格形成に悪影響を及ぼす」などもっともな理由からだが、こうした意見は出にくくなっている。委員の任期が来るたびに、政権がアベノミクス賛成論者に替えてきたからだ。反対の２人は第２次安倍政権の発足前から務める民間エコノミスト出身者である。

If the Policy Board is dominated by similar-minded members, it will lose its ability to check the aggressive and controversial “different dimension” monetary expansion policy that has been promoted by BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.
　政権の考えに近い委員ばかりになれば、黒田東彦総裁が旗を振る異次元緩和に対するチェック機能は失われてしまう。

We are concerned that the BOJ might become even more inclined to adopt a monetary policy supportive of the administration’s agenda.
今後ますます政権にとって都合のよい金融政策に傾きかねない点も気がかりだ。

But the Policy Board should be given credit for refraining from an expansion of the negative interest rate policy, which could put an additional strain on the financial health of banks, and also from an increase in the amount of government bonds bought by the BOJ, which could be seen as the central bank’s attempt to finance government spending.
　ただ、金融機関の経営をますます圧迫しかねないマイナス金利政策の強化や、政府への財政ファイナンスと受け取られかねない国債買い入れの増額に手をつけなかった点は評価したい。

Markets had warned that failing to take these steps would trigger the yen’s upswing as well as a major stock market decline. But this view itself reflects a distorted relationship between monetary policy and financial markets.
市場では「実施しないと円高、株安になる」となかば脅しのように語られていたが、そのこと自体が金融政策と市場とのゆがんだ関係を表している。

The BOJ’s excessive monetary expansion is now doing more harm than good to both companies and households.
　企業や家計にとって、行きすぎた金融緩和は今や有害だ。

The negative interest rate policy has delivered a serious blow not just to banks but also to pension funds whose investment plans have gone awry due to the measure.
マイナス金利政策では、金融機関だけでなく運用計画が狂った年金基金も悲鳴をあげている。

To bring its monetary policy back to a normal state, the BOJ should start mapping out an exit strategy for its different dimension monetary easing program as soon as possible.
日銀は正常な金融政策に立ち戻るため、早く異次元緩和からの出口政策を検討し始めるべきだ。

ＡＳＥＡＮ会議 中国の国際法無視が目に余る

The Yomiuri Shimbun
China’s disregard for international law glaringly apparent at ASEAN
ＡＳＥＡＮ会議　中国の国際法無視が目に余る

Beijing continues to reject the court of arbitration’s decision dismissing the country’s self-serving claims that its sovereignty covers almost all the area in the South China Sea. We believe such a high-handed stance can never be accepted.
　南シナ海のほぼ全域に主権が及ぶという独善的な主張を否定した仲裁裁判所の判決を拒否し続ける。そんな中国の横暴は決して許されまい。

Foreign ministers gathered for meetings of the East Asia Summit — Japan, the United States, China and Southeast Asian countries are among the members — and the ASEAN Regional Forum.
　日米中や東南アジアなどによる東アジア首脳会議（ＥＡＳ）と東南アジア諸国連合（ＡＳＥＡＮ）地域フォーラム（ＡＲＦ）の外相会議が開かれた。

Regarding Beijing’s moves to militarize the South China Sea, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called for China to respect the ruling, saying, “It is an arbitration, the results of which ... is legally binding.”
　中国が南シナ海で軍事拠点化を進める問題について、ケリー米国務長官は、「仲裁の結果には法的拘束力がある」と述べ、中国に判決を尊重するよう要求した。

Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida followed suit, stressing, “Parties concerned should comply with the court of arbitration, which will contribute to solving the issue.”
　岸田外相も、「仲裁裁判に紛争当事国が従うことで、問題の解決につながる」と強調した。

It is crucial for Japan, the United States and other countries concerned to work together to keep urging China to abide by the ruling.
　日米など関係国が結束して、中国に判決の順守を促し続けることが肝要である。

During a meeting with Kishida, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for Japan to be discreet in word and deed because Tokyo is “not a party concerned in the South China Sea issue.” This cannot be overlooked.
　看過できないのは、中国の王毅外相が岸田外相との会談で、「日本は南シナ海問題の当事国ではない」などと強弁し、言行を慎むよう求めたことだ。

It is nothing less than in the common interest of the international community to maintain order in the South China Sea based on the rule of law, and ensure freedom of navigation. We regard Wang’s claims as unreasonable.
　「法の支配」に基づく南シナ海の秩序維持と航行の自由の確保は国際社会共通の利益にほかならない。王氏の主張は筋違いだ。

Following the ruling, Beijing announced that it had sent new bombers on patrol around the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, which is close to the Philippines. The country said it will regularly conduct such missions, and has also expressed a policy to continue building artificial islands in the area. A series of such moves will only heighten tension.
　中国は判決後、フィリピンに近い南シナ海のスカボロー礁付近で新型爆撃機の巡視飛行を実施したと発表した。今後は常態化させるという。人工島の施設建設を続ける方針も示している。一連の行動は緊張を高めるだけだ。

Apparent maneuver

Ahead of the EAS meeting, foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations issued a joint statement at their gathering, which said they “remain seriously concerned” over current developments in the South China Sea. The document failed to directly refer to the ruling because of strong opposition from Cambodia, which receives huge amounts of economic assistance from China.
　ＥＡＳ外相会議に先立ち、ＡＳＥＡＮ外相会議は共同声明で、南シナ海の現状に対し、「深刻な懸念」を表明した。判決に直接言及しなかったのは、中国から大規模な経済支援を受けているカンボジアが強硬に反対したためだ。

“Only one country mentioned the court of arbitration during this meeting,” Wang said, with an eye on the Philippines. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s administration, which suffered a serious diplomatic setback from the ruling, apparently believed that it was able to regain lost ground by splitting ASEAN members.
　王氏は、フィリピンを念頭に、「会議で仲裁裁判に触れたのは１か国だけだ」と語った。判決で外交上の大敗北を喫した習近平政権はＡＳＥＡＮを切り崩し、巻き返しを図ったつもりなのだろう。

We suspect that China is also drawing up a scenario to woo the Philippines, which has just undergone a change of administration, to set aside the ruling and hold talks.
　判決を棚上げしたまま、政権交代したばかりのフィリピンを懐柔して対話に持ち込む。こんな筋書きも描いているのではないか。

Wang announced that China had set a target of completing the establishment of a code of conduct with ASEAN — which would legally bind moves by countries concerned in the South China Sea — by the first half of next year. Beijing’s reluctance has so far hampered talks on the envisioned set of rules between the two sides.
　王氏は、南シナ海での関係国の行動を法的に拘束する行動規範について、来年上半期までに策定を完了する目標を明らかにした。これまでＡＳＥＡＮとの協議では、中国の消極姿勢が障害だった。

China presented the target apparently with the aim of fending off criticism from ASEAN. We cannot believe that China, which disregards international law, will seriously engage in the establishment of multinational rules. Countries concerned should beef up pressure on China to give the code of conduct more teeth.
　時期の明示には、ＡＳＥＡＮ側の批判をかわす狙いがあろう。国際法を蔑ないがしろにする中国が国際ルールの策定に真摯しんしに取り組むとは思えない。関係国は、行動規範の実効性を高めるよう対中圧力を強めるべきである。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 27, 2016)