追加金融緩和 日銀は政権のしもべか

--The Asahi Shimbun, July 30
EDITORIAL: BOJ must free itself from the shackles of state policy
（社説）追加金融緩和　日銀は政権のしもべか

The Bank of Japan has decided to open the monetary spigot further. The central bank said July 29 that it will double its annual purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETF) to 6 trillion yen ($58.8 billion).
　日本銀行が金融緩和の追加策を決めた。日銀が買い入れる上場投資信託（ＥＴＦ）の額を年間６兆円に倍増する。

The BOJ’s action came as a response to a request for further monetary expansion from the Abe administration, which will soon unveil a huge package of policy measures to stoke economic growth. The program will come in at 28 trillion yen.
　安倍政権は近く事業規模２８兆円の大型経済対策を発表する予定で、日銀に金融緩和で協力するよう求めていた。

The central bank has already taken radical steps to pump money into the economy, by setting negative interest rates and making massive purchases of government bonds. As experts have warned that expanding these measures would be ineffective and even harmful, the BOJ, apparently under pressure to play ball with the government, resorted to one of the few remaining options.
マイナス金利の拡大や国債買い入れの増額に弊害や限界が指摘されるなかで、政府に歩調を合わせるための苦肉の策と言えよう。

The thinking behind the monetary policy is to ensure that the Japanese economy will continue stable and sustained growth.
　金融政策の本来の目的は、日本経済を安定させ持続的な発展を確かなものにすることだ。

It is doubtful whether the central bank’s latest move will serve this purpose.
今回の緩和策がそれにかなっているかと言えば、疑わしい。

In the latest of its quarterly “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices” report, released on July 29, the BOJ said the economy “has continued its moderate recovery trend” and “is likely to be on a moderate expanding trend.”
　日銀は四半期に一度の「展望リポート」で日本の景気の現状を「緩やかな回復を続けている」とし、今後についても「緩やかに拡大していく」と見通した。

A clutch of economic indicators confirmed the BOJ’s assessment, indicating the economy is on a stable footing. The ratio of job offers to job seekers has risen above 1 in all the 47 prefectures for the first time since such records started being kept.
有効求人倍率が全都道府県で初めて１倍を超えるなど多くの景気指標が改善を示し、景気はそれなりに安定している。

Even though there is a degree of uncertainty in European and emerging economies, no compelling case can be made for putting together an outsized package of economic stimulus measures at this moment. The BOJ should have taken exception to the administration’s plan, but the central bank has instead provided support to the administration through the additional monetary easing.
　欧州経済や新興国経済に不透明感があるとはいえ、いま大型の経済対策を打ち出そうという政府の発想そのものがおかしい。日銀はそれに物申すべきだが、追加緩和でむしろ側面支援してしまった。

The BOJ deserves to be criticized for following the government’s lead into a questionable move.
政権の意を受けて追従したと見られても仕方あるまい。

Two of the nine members of the BOJ’s Policy Board, which makes the bank’s policy decisions, voiced opposition to the proposal to increase the purchases of ETFs, investment vehicles traded on stock exchanges.
　金融政策を決める審議委員９人のうちＥＴＦ購入増には２人が反対した。

They argued, quite reasonably, that the step would have negative effects on price formation in the market. But such dissenting voices within the central bank’s policy-making body are now more unlikely to be heard than before because the Abe administration has replaced retiring members with supporters of the prime minister's "Abenomics" economic policy. The two members opposed to the latest action are both private-sector economists who joined the Policy Board before Shinzo Abe returned to power in December 2012.
「市場の価格形成に悪影響を及ぼす」などもっともな理由からだが、こうした意見は出にくくなっている。委員の任期が来るたびに、政権がアベノミクス賛成論者に替えてきたからだ。反対の２人は第２次安倍政権の発足前から務める民間エコノミスト出身者である。

If the Policy Board is dominated by similar-minded members, it will lose its ability to check the aggressive and controversial “different dimension” monetary expansion policy that has been promoted by BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.
　政権の考えに近い委員ばかりになれば、黒田東彦総裁が旗を振る異次元緩和に対するチェック機能は失われてしまう。

We are concerned that the BOJ might become even more inclined to adopt a monetary policy supportive of the administration’s agenda.
今後ますます政権にとって都合のよい金融政策に傾きかねない点も気がかりだ。

But the Policy Board should be given credit for refraining from an expansion of the negative interest rate policy, which could put an additional strain on the financial health of banks, and also from an increase in the amount of government bonds bought by the BOJ, which could be seen as the central bank’s attempt to finance government spending.
　ただ、金融機関の経営をますます圧迫しかねないマイナス金利政策の強化や、政府への財政ファイナンスと受け取られかねない国債買い入れの増額に手をつけなかった点は評価したい。

Markets had warned that failing to take these steps would trigger the yen’s upswing as well as a major stock market decline. But this view itself reflects a distorted relationship between monetary policy and financial markets.
市場では「実施しないと円高、株安になる」となかば脅しのように語られていたが、そのこと自体が金融政策と市場とのゆがんだ関係を表している。

The BOJ’s excessive monetary expansion is now doing more harm than good to both companies and households.
　企業や家計にとって、行きすぎた金融緩和は今や有害だ。

The negative interest rate policy has delivered a serious blow not just to banks but also to pension funds whose investment plans have gone awry due to the measure.
マイナス金利政策では、金融機関だけでなく運用計画が狂った年金基金も悲鳴をあげている。

To bring its monetary policy back to a normal state, the BOJ should start mapping out an exit strategy for its different dimension monetary easing program as soon as possible.
日銀は正常な金融政策に立ち戻るため、早く異次元緩和からの出口政策を検討し始めるべきだ。